Why Travis Kelce’s long-term future should linger over Chiefs’ roster decisions

About 15 minutes after the Chiefs’ regular season finale in Los Angeles, Travis Kelce emerged from the locker room first among players, already dressed and carrying a travel bag. He’d opted to sit out the game that day, voluntarily ending the longest streak of tight end 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history.

As he passed a small group of reporters, knowing they were curious for the reasoning behind his decision, Kelce offered the answer before anyone had actually asked the question.

“Just trying not to be washed,” he said, a wry smile in tow.

He was joking, but the remark didn’t come out of nowhere. The how-much-does-Kelce-have-left talk had increased its volume over the previous month, loud enough to make him aware of it, and that too didn’t come out of nowhere.

He shut up the noise over the course of the latest Super Bowl run — good as ever — but it’s still a question the Chiefs should be asking themselves as they make key decisions over the two months:

What are the expectations for a 35-year-old Kelce in 2024? What about beyond that?

The best long-term plan is to find the Kelce replacement before they need the Kelce replacement. The latter is eventually coming, even if not immediately. The Chiefs should beat that moment to the punch — as early as, well, now.

Somehow Kelce, as a 34-year-old last season, was still better than literally every 24-year-old in the league. He’ll be 35 in October, and, for the record, I expect him to be productive. Maybe a little less so, sure, because that’s how these things typically work. But still productive.

So why advocate a search for his successor? Because the search doesn’t have to coincide with the urgency. The search can preempt the urgency. And I don’t mean with Irv Smith, whom the Chiefs signed to a one-year contract this week. Smith is an upgrade at TE3. If he’s playing a lot of snaps this season, something has gone wrong.

This is about a big-picture, long-term strategy, a concept in which the Chiefs have recognized while so many of their peers prioritize only what sits directly in front of them.

The Chiefs have stayed a leg up, in part, because they have consistently stayed a step ahead — such as drafting five cornerbacks in two years before the L’Jarius Sneed free agency arrived; signing Drue Tranquill a year before Nick Bolton is due to hit the market; and drafting Bryan Cook before Juan Thornhill leaves.

Notice the trend? Before. Before. Before.

They prepare for players set to leave due to expiring contracts. They can do the same with a soon-to-be 35-year-old tight end who has been as vital as any player outside Patrick Mahomes — whether that’s through free agency, the draft or a potential trade, or a combination of the three.

It’s not an opinion they need someone tomorrow (have I said that enough?) but the fact that they will need someone eventually. And there’s considerable value in trying to find that someone while the predecessor is still valuable himself. Sure would make the transition more seamless, no?

To be sure, whenever that day comes, there will not be a like-for-like successor — on the field nor in the locker room. There is no blueprint in which the Chiefs would not feel the effects of a Kelce drop-off. There is a blueprint in which they’d feel it a little less.

The metrics show Kelce, even while enduring a slump, was a highly-productive player at age-34 last season. He still finished second among all tight ends in yards per route run (YPRR), per PFF. For a month, he was the only pass-catcher on the roster evidently capable of reading zone coverage. In the postseason, after that week off in L.A., his best came out.

Before he took that week off, though? As unproductive as he’s ever been in the Mahomes era.

He had three consecutive weeks, the final three of the regular season, in which his yards per route run dipped below 1.0 — that had never been the case since Mahomes started throwing him footballs. His yards after catch per reception dropped. The average depth of his target did, too.

In four of the previous five years, he didn’t have more than one game over an entire season with a sub-1.0 YPRR. Then, three in a row to end 2023.

That’s why the conversation began, why he felt the need to make the the washed comment, (er, joke) and, frankly, why this topic even exists now. Well, that and the obvious: his age. We saw a glimpse of what life looks like with a less productive Kelce.

“He was very symbolic of our whole team, where the team found another gear, found another level, and that was just what Travis did,” general manager Brett Veach said. “He went through some adversity. He went through some ups and downs. I think Travis had a little moment during the calendar year where it wasn’t all perfect. He dug deep and found another level. And we just hopped on board and found it with him.”

There’s still a lot to work with there. That’s what crystallized in the playoffs. The questions now: How much? How much longer? What’s reasonable to expect from Kelce next season? What about the year after?

The Chiefs are already operating under the belief they need more pass-catchers, and that’s with Kelce banking another 1,000-yard (or darn close to it) season.

Eventually that piece won’t be so reliable. And when there is a drop-off, the Chiefs ought to be a year ahead of it.

It’s not as though they haven’t discussed this already. They have managed him differently, and that’s been the case for awhile, not strictly last season. In five straight years, Kelce has played a smaller percentage of the snaps than he did the year before.

“I think if you manage Travis the right way, there’s still good production there,” coach Andy Reid said. “I would be the first one to tell him if I didn’t think there was. We have to manage it the right way.”